{"product_id":"9780470029992","title":"Uncertain Judgements Eliciting Experts' Probabilities","description":"\u003ch3\u003eStatistics in Practice\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003ch1\u003eUncertain Judgements\u003c\/h1\u003e\u003ch2\u003eEliciting Experts' Probabilities\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003ch3\u003eAnthony O'Hagan | Caitlin E. Buck | Alireza Daneshkhah | J. Richard Eiser | Paul H. Garthwaite | David J. Jenkinson | Jeremy E. Oakley | Tim Rakow\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cb\u003eMathematics \/ Probability \u0026amp; Statistics \/ General\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eElicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. \u003ci\u003eUncertain Judgements\u003c\/i\u003e introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eThis is achieved by:\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDetailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProviding a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eUsing examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIncluding an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, \u003ci\u003eUncertain Judgements\u003c\/i\u003e will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e  \u003cb\u003eProfessor Anthony O’Hagan\u003c\/b\u003e is the Director of The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics at the University of Sheffield. The Centre is a collaboration between the Department of Probability and Statistics and the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR). The Department of Probability and Statistics is internationally respected for its research in Bayesian statistics, while ScHARR is one of the leading UK centres for economic evaluation.  \u003cp\u003eProf O’Hagan is an internationally leading expert in Bayesian Statistics.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCo-authors:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eProfessor Paul Gathwaite\u003c\/b\u003e – Open University, Prof of Statistics, Maths and Computing\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDr Jeremy Oakley\u003c\/b\u003e – Sheffield University\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eProfessor John Brazier\u003c\/b\u003e – Director of Health Economics Group, University of Sheffield\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDr Tim Rakow\u003c\/b\u003e – University of Essex, Psychology Department\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDr Alireza Daneshkhah\u003c\/b\u003e – University of Sheffield, Medical Statistics Department\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDr Jim Chilcott\u003c\/b\u003e - School of Health Research, University of Sheffield, Department of OR\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003ePublication Date: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e11 September 2006\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003ePublisher: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eWiley\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eImprint: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eWiley\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eISBN-13: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e9780470029992\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eFormat: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eHardback\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003ePage Count: \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e340\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003eWeight (oz): \u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003ctd\u003e20.0\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003c\/table\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":44384452018316,"sku":"9780470029992","price":84.56,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0710\/9545\/1788\/files\/9780470029992_b451e63b-5fea-4e76-aa08-94e7e4d21e09.jpg?v=1780169616","url":"https:\/\/lateknightbooks.com\/products\/9780470029992","provider":"Late Knight Books and Services, LLC","version":"1.0","type":"link"}