This book considers non-ideological causes for extremist violence in Pakistan. It examines variability in the occurrence of extremist violence in Karachi, Peshawar, Lahore, and Quetta from 1988 to 2016 and offers detailed case studies of Karachi and Peshawar. Using data gathered through extensive fieldwork and an existing dataset on political violence, the study finds that subnational temporal variability in extremist violence is better explained by incentives than by religious ideology. A key group of violent entrepreneurs, responding to changes in their incentive structures, strategically substitutes extremist violence for other forms of political or criminal violence. At times when these actors choose extremist violence instead of ethnic, electoral, or organized criminal violence, we call them enterprising extremists. The book explores three main explanations or hypotheses to determine what factors most impact incentives for extremist violence. The first explanation (H1 State Endorsement) is that incentives for extremist violence are higher than for other forms of violence when the state is either overtly or tacitly endorsing this type of violence. The second hypothesis (H2 Market Structure) posits that incentives will be higher when there is either: 1) ongoing competition among similarly matched violent actors or; 2) a condition of near monopoly wherein the top violent actor engages in extremist violence. The last hypothesis (H3 Patronage) suggests that the failure of traditional patrons to reliably serve their clients raises incentives for extremist violence.

Rabia Zafar is a national security professional with experience spanning government and academia. Her areas of research include violent extremism, terrorism, politics of South Asia and the Middle East, and Women, Peace, and Security. Dr. Zafar has taught at the U.S. Naval War College, advised the Defense Security Cooperation Agency as a subject matter expert, and served as an intelligence officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency. She holds a Ph.D. from Tufts University’s Fletcher School, a Master’s in International Affairs from Columbia University, and a Bachelor’s in Middle East Studies from the University of Virginia.