This book is a clear and practical guide to investment decision making. Through vivid, real‑world examples—Prelude FLNG, Snøhvit LNG, floating wind, and exploration drilling—it shows how to compare costs, benefits, risks, and opportunities to make value-creating decisions. It also explains why some projects succeed, why others fail, and how decision analysis can tilt the odds in favor of value creation.

Energy projects shape the modern world. They power economies. They influence global human development. Yet behind every project is a single force: the quality of its decisions. Good decisions—not simply good resources or even good forecasts—drive long‑term value creation. This applies to all projects, and especially to the uncertain and complex world of energy.

This book introduces a decision analytic and market‑based approach to project assessment. It blends the craft of assessment with economic logic and strategic insight. It explains how to frame decisions, evaluate alternatives, and model uncertainty, to reveal the hidden value of flexibility and information. Above all, it shows how clear thinking can create positive impact in an uncertain world. Good decisions build better projects—and ultimately, better futures.

Babak Jafarizadeh, B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D., is an academic at Heriot-Watt University, specializing in energy project economics. He also lectures at University of California, Berkeley, in finance for engineers. Beyond academia, Babak is a senior consultant and an engineering economist with expertise in petroleum economics, investment evaluation, and decision analysis.

He delivers high-impact training courses worldwide—presenting the craft of making good economic decisions under uncertainty. His programs—ranging from energy economics to markets and valuations—have consistently earned strong industry engagement and recognition.