Why do so many governments declare war on mere problems yet overlook the warning signs of real conflict? This book explores the growing global paradox of making bold declarations of war on issues such as immigration and unfair trade practices while overlooking the actual triggers of violent conflict. The result? The costly misuse of emergency powers and missed chances to prevent crises.

Drawing on insights from economics, strategy, society, and the environment, the book demonstrates how the erosion of thresholds in any of the five fundamental forms of capital can quietly ignite major unrest. It argues that understanding and quantifying these thresholds is essential not just for avoiding war but also for preserving lives, resources, and stability.

Offering a practical framework for anticipating and averting conflict before it escalates, the book will appeal to policymakers, business leaders, academics, and media professionals. 

Ludovic Subran is the Chief Investment Officer of Allianz, Europe's largest insurer and investor. He is also the Co-Managing Director of Allianz Investment Management. Subran is also the Group's Chief Economist. He has previously worked for the World Bank, the United Nations World Food Program, and the French Ministry of Finance. Subran is a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, a Member of the French Council of Economic Advisers, a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, a Millennium Fellow of the Atlantic Council, and a David Rockefeller Fellow of the Trilateral Commission. He also serves on the board of Mercy Corps, one of the largest humanitarian NGOs.

Alexis Garatti is a Climate Change Manager in the Group Sustainability Office of Allianz Trade in Paris. Previously, he served as Head of Economic Research at the same institution. Prior to that, he was the Global Head of Economic Research at Taikang Asset Management. Garatti worked for eight years in Hong Kong for investment banks, including Citic Securities and Haitong Securities. Garatti began his career as an economist in Natixis’ Research Department. Garatti holds a Ph.D. in economics, an IFID (International Fixed Income & Derivatives) Certificate from the ICMA (International Capital Market Association), and a Sustainability and Climate Risk Certificate from the Global Association of Risk Professionals.

Julio C. Saavedra is a fellow at Oman’s Royal Academy of Management and a Research Fellow at Allianz. Previously, he was a Senior Economic Policy Advisor at the TTU of the Diwan of the Royal Court of Oman and a Member of the Executive Board and Director of Internationalization of Research at CESifo Group, one of Europe’s most influential economic research institutions. Saavedra has advised the governments of Spain, the UAE, Croatia, and Uzbekistan on economic policy. He was a visiting lecturer at the Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona in Spain and an advisor on the strategic organization of economic research in South Korea.